A Busier Hurricane Season Expected Despite El Niño

Despite El Niño, long-range forecasters at Colorado State University expect a busier Atlantic hurricane season, and now’s the time to prepare your business. Fox Weather invites Paul Walsh, CEO of Meteomatics North America, to share insights into the updated forecast.

Colorado State University, renowned for its long-range predictions, has recently updated its forecast for the hurricane season.

This forecast sets the stage for a fierce battle between two contrasting oceanic forces: the Atlantic Ocean's soaring temperatures and the presence of El Niño in the Pacific. The dynamics of this hurricane season have become increasingly intricate.

Paul Walsh, CEO of Meteomatics, North America, discussed the revised forecast with Fox Weather: "The initial forecasts projected a relatively normal or even below-average hurricane season, primarily due to the anticipated strong El Niño. However, we observed a lack of Saharan winds, which have now emerged, contributing to the unprecedented warmth in the ocean."

The Atlantic Ocean isn't just warm; temperatures are shattering records. These rising temperatures provide the ideal conditions for hurricane formation. This unforeseen change has prompted experts to reevaluate their initial predictions for the season.

"As we progress into this stage of the season, the forecasts become more accurate, making it increasingly likely that we'll witness more storms than usual. This trend has been evident over the past several years," added Walsh.

The Pacific Ocean's pattern introduces a contrasting element to the overall hurricane season equation. Initially, a strong El Niño was expected to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

With imminent storms approaching, consumers hastily stock up on essentials like fuel and food, preparing for potential disruptions caused by hurricanes.

The direct impact of these storms can be devastating, affecting industries and infrastructure. Despite enhanced forecasting capabilities, accurately predicting the path and intensity of these storms remains challenging. And it underscores the importance of preparedness for everyone, regardless of the forecast.

El Niño's influence extends beyond the hurricane season. "We're witnessing it now, particularly through increased precipitation across the lower part of the country. From an economic perspective, projections indicate that this year's El Niño could impact the global economy by approximately 3 trillion dollars," stated Walsh.

The Southern tier of the United States should anticipate heightened rainfall due to El Niño, which may impact local economies.

While meteorologists and experts continuously monitor the evolving weather patterns of this hurricane season, Walsh emphasizes the need to remain prepared: "Always be ready, as if your house is going to be impacted by a storm, regardless of the forecast."

Continuing to evaluate the risk of different types of weather in the coming months is precisely what weather data exists to assist with.

Use the Meteomatics Weather API To Evaluate the Risk of Different Types of Weather

At Meteomatics, we provide our forecast of the ENSO index and a range of weather models covering the coming seasons with varying degrees of specificity.

Our data can be used to predict events months in advance and continue refining estimates of outcomes as time progresses.

At a lower level, businesses are advised to increase their resilience to the consequences of a strong El Niño. Agricultural businesses should examine whether their land is at risk of droughts or floods and plant resistant crops or engineer irrigation systems accordingly. Weather APIs are incredibly powerful for this kind of preparation and supply chain logistics, allowing users to monitor weather patterns in regions where raw materials are sourced.

Weather data and warnings can be integrated into a digital process using the Meteomatics Weather API. Processes can run on automation using the latest weather information and thus build digital resilience for the entire organization by using the latest weather information for planning and decisions.